I bought a straddle on SPY at ~1266, and it is losing money slowly. :-(I was expecting a relatively large jump from this level within a day or 2 given the past history. The S&P hasn't wanted to stay anywhere for too long, and it was poised on channel line.
There are lots of little channels drawn on the chart above, but the longest one is the one I'm concerned with. The peaks and valleys were following a steeper channel until about a week ago when we dropped back hard from > 1300. I identified the shallower channel from the lower group of highs happening since july which also seemed to be in line with linear movement in lte june.
It looks like we resumed another linear movement right along the bottom line of my new shallower channel.
Its not what I would have liked having bet on big move instead of a slow upward crawl, however it is interesting that it is following the trendline so closely. I still think a breakout is imminent, especially if oil makes another big move, up or down. Falling into this narrow range action is rare enough, but much rarer is for it to continue for more than a couple days. So I'm still in my straddle. Just gonna take a little more work to clean up the losing side once it breaks.
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