S&P bottom?

Long term S&P: 50% retrace line is 1175

1 year s&p action. 1170 is channel bottom, and fib bottom too based on some previous reversals.

Still headed up!

Since the last S&P shot, we're still heading up off the channel low.
I want to emphasize that the upper and lower lines are not completely arbitrary. They are equidistant from a linear regression fit to the S&P index data since July 9th or so. And the market has set the slope of the trend line, and the early peaks have set the width of this bigger channel.

The fact that we can find support along the invisible line in the sand weeks later tells me I'm not the only one looking at this. The line can be violated, sure, and if it is, we know we have an event which is beyond the extremes of the last few weeks, which is a big deal to be concerned about for any long postions, and possibly a signal to go short.

But if the lines hold, well, that tells you something different about sentiment and the value of this channel as a predictor as well.

As for the middle zone, one can use shorter steeper channels to define movements across several days, and also 5,8,21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, and 610 period moving averages on 5min , 15min, 30min, 60min , and daily charts to look for support/resistance. When one of these lines line up with fibonacci support/resistance across some similar time frame, the setup for a reversal is in place. Its like looking for a needle in a haystack sometimes, but I can't say how many times recently I've analyzed a bad entry/exit and found a good reason in these simple support/resistance lines to come up with a better decision. It just takes patience, practice, and discipline, but the roadmap is waiting there ready to reveal itself.


Here's a near end of day update...things are looking good so far for bulls, and my insanely overleveraged long SPY call position which is coming back on me...hooray!

S&P TA turmoil

Its been a while, but I'm back with new S&P channel shots. We had some amazing volatility since later last week and then after the weekend break. A lot driven by Gustav, RNC VP selection, and just low volume and uncertainty in the market. And you zoom in close enough, you can even see how the intraday bottoms today even follow that uptrending slope to some extent. This gives me some confidence that this picture is still on other peoples radar too.

So which way? Hard to say...I'd like to think up...there are good reasons to buy in here. But people are spooked too, so its pretty hard to really gauge sentiment. The recent history of the past week or so says we are completely range bound from 1260 to 1300 or so. However, impending breakouts always start before you really expect them, so I think its safe to say we are getting ready to jump now.

Breaking outside this channel towards lower values is definitely bearish movement we haven't seen in weeks. So be wary of that. Also be wary of simply hugging that lower trend line...that shows short term bullish behavior that could easily be smacked by a relatively light bad news event, and leave lots of room to fall without a lot of support lines to break the fall. But if we have nice push back into the middle zone, the bulls will have spoken again that they are not ready to lie down quite yet. If we take off, expect resistance again near the middle and the top of the channel. And anything goes in between, but in the channel is still technically "up".

Be careful out there!